Transfers. Opinions, thoughts and eye-openers.

 

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As Marca continue to talk – how many people are continuing to listen? The desperation of transfer windows really do bring out the worst in twitter. Last Summer was the “Year of the ITK”, what do we have this year? The ‘clued up journalist’ and the ‘man with inside contacts he can’t talk about’ seem to be striding out in front. Boring. My advice? Don’t get excited until you see it on your club website and his smiling face is holding the shirt. Nuri Sahin (2011, Arsenal) and the recent Gary Hooper (QPR) are proof that being at a club’s ground means nothing. 

1) I thought he was Gunner sign?

When a club is interested in a player, there’s a generic transfer routine they all follow.

Declare interest (receiving club can dismiss).
Indicative offer (receiving club can reject/accept in principle).
Approach players agent (to gauge interest from client).
Formal offer (negotiations begin at this stage, teams will sometimes authorise the player to begin medical process if they’re confident a deal will be agreed – this is what Peter Odemwingie thought was happening between Queens Park Rangers and West Bromich Albion.
Personal terms (Contract length, agents fees, signing on fees, fee from the old contracts).
Transfer complete.

Arsenal completed those first 3 stages, the indicative offer of £22m was good – until Napoli declared an interest. It seems Arsenal fans feel Real Madrid owe them something? Or didn’t act honourably? Ridiculous.

Real Madrid did to Arsenal, exactly what Arsenal did to Manchester City on both the Samir Nasri and Emmanuel Adebayor deals. They accepted a fee in principle, before finalising their asking price at the formal stage.

When Real Madrid wanted more money, Arsenal didn’t value him in the same region – and were eager to avoid a bidding war with Napoli. So, Arsenal moved on to another transfer target. Liverpool’s Luis Suarez.

2) Let’s talk about Cesc, baby.

Sorry to use a TV reference, but have you ever seen those American Sketches when they use ‘Garrett Morris – Headmaster of the New York School for the Hearing Impaired’? This is what Manchester United need, they need this guy to sit in the room with them and punctuate the fact Barcelona don’t want to sell.

Admittedly, there is a hilarious irony here. Given Barcelona poked, pinched, bit and fought their way to landing Fabregas , using every trick in the book, using every player in their power and exploiting the notoriously vague Tapping Up laws held by UEFA – they’re now upset that Manchester United are ignoring their pleas? Come off it.

But at the end of the day, he’s not available. When Barcelona signed him his buy-out clause was 200m Euros, and we’ve recently learned Arsenal have a buy-back option in the region of £37m. Aside from the Gunners, not many others have a hope.

An interesting addition to this, Sid Lowe (The Guardian) has an interesting theory as to why United are confident over Fabregas. If true, Darren Dein has played them rightly. Lowe thinks Dein is using United to remind Barcelona how important Fabregas is and others would take him. Clever. Darren Dein may be hated, but he does look after his clients.

3) Is he going to Bale on Spurs?

Similar to with Luka Modric, there’s a lot of talk around Bale being promised: “One more season – if we don’t make the Champions League, you can leave.”

Do I believe it? Well, you don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to read between the lines here. Here’s some key points.

– AVB has stated contract talks with Gareth Bale have been ongoing since last year. That should ring alarm bells. Take their London rivals, Chelsea and Arsenal. Frank Lampard was desperate for a new deal, and got one in under 3months. Then there’s Tony Adams at Arsenal, who famously said: “I’ll sign whatever contract they put in front of me – I just want to play.” If Bale was committed to Tottenham, in 12+ months of discussions, something would have been resolved.
– Gareth Bale has twitter. If a player is committed, it really isn’t that difficult to make your feelings known. The only reason you wouldn’t tweet, or publically comment, on your position – is if you didn’t know.
– Finally, it’s Real Madrid. Arguably the biggest club in world football. That would test the resolve of any player, let alone a player feeling shackled by a lack of success.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

There’s no smoke without fire, Madrid are obviously interested – and we all know how low Spanish clubs will sink to get the player they want.

And Let’s not forget, Levy has a new stadium to fund. He’s a property man, the attraction of bricks and mortar draws him. He wants to stabilise long-term and there’s a cash-cow that will help him do that. What % of a stadium will £60m buy?

Replacements? Roberto Soldado or Edin Dzeko are leading the way. I believe Dzeko is a better buy. He’s got Premier League experience, he’s a more physical presence and I think he’d be cheaper.
Soldado has a fantastic goal record, but it’s a fantastic goal record in Spain. Spain. Any goal record in Spain is cheapened by the fact no-one can defend. Clean sheets are as rare as rain, and it’s not uncommon to see 6 goal matches – Soldado brings a risk, and Spurs need someone who can hit the ground running. Dzeko is the better option, for me.

4) And finally, what does a Transfer Request mean? 

In the case of a transfer request, the player is publicly stating his desire to move, and encouraging other clubs to make an offer for him. Due to the public nature of transfer requests, they may often be used by players to air their grievances in the open, such as frustration over contract negotiations or clash of personality with the manager.

…..But we know that.

The finer details of a transfer request are in contract law, and the breaching of contracts. For example: Arsenal wish to buy Suarez. Suarez and Liverpool have a contract in place stating that the player will represent the club, and the club will remunerate him for doing so. Straight forward enough. However, if Liverpool accept an offer from Arsenal, they’re terminating the contract – and Suarez is therefore entitled to loyalty bonuses, as is his agent – which vary depending on the length of time the player has left on his deal (3 years). The £50m Liverpool seek will factor in the pay-offs obligated from them. Should Suarez submit a transfer request, he breaks the contract – and forfeits those bonuses and Liverpool would be more likely to accept a lesser fee. Which is why my prediction is: Suarez to submit a transfer request, and the deal to go through in the region of £44m. The entitlement varies depending on your interpretation – I understand players to pick up around 30% of their remaining salary, if sold without submitting a request. Suarez being on £90-100k per week, you’d estimate he’d be getting £4-5m, and his agent £1.5m.

 

To wrap this one up, take twitter with a pinch of salt. ITK’s prey on the desperation of supporters hoping for a successful season. It’s best to see the story for what it is, read between the lines, and save all excitement (and tattoos! **KAKA**) until the deal is done.

Just Wait Until It’s Official.

What do you think? You know where to find me on twitter.

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Over and out!