Golden Rules of Accumulator Gambling, 2015

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Placing a bet this weekend? Here’s my Golden Rules of Gambling, live by these and you’ll do alright….

1. You haven’t lost what isn’t yours. When you bet it, you lose it, no team has let you down – you have simply “given away £5”. You haven’t “Lost £5,000”.
2. Don’t touch the early game, or the late game. Keep it on all 3pm kick-offs.
3. A derby game is a bookies’ paradise, not yours.
4. Avoid betting on your own team as emotions get involved.
5. Ride the trends, not the history. 2012-2014, Brighton, Blackpool, Dundee United & MK Dons were dead-certainties to score and concede in every game. Don’t let nostalgia fool you into thinking under new management their traits will remain.
6. Don’t talk about betting – You tweet your bet, you lose your bet
7. Stay true to your gut. Late changes will cost you. Don’t be a penalty taker who changes his mind last minute, you’ll kick yourself when you miss.
8. Peterborough will let you down, every single time. Give them a wide berth.
9. Bet against a new manager with caution….
10. Big clubs don’t win games – Good teams win games. I’m looking at you, Leeds United.
11. The Turkish Süper Lig has the highest percentage of home wins in UEFA governed football. Food for thought.
12. Away wins are where the money is.
13. Adding value to your bets always adds in tears. Don’t keep adding ‘certainties’ to your slip thinking it will boost your winnings. You’re only giving the bookmakers more chance to take your earnings.
14. Don’t listen to “That Mate” – You know who I mean, the one who convinces you that St Mirren are FLYING at the minute and you have to back them to win at Aberdeen.
15. Hold a grudge. The only thing worse than a team letting you down, is you backing them again – and losing again. Trick me once, shame on you – Trick me twice, shame on me.
16. Never chase your losses. You place a £10 bet on, it flops, there’s 3 late matches on… Re-dig into the pockets and find yourself redemption? No.
17. Explore how you bet: Heinz, Goliath, Lucky 63, Canadian. If you don’t know what they are, find out. Finding the right betting format is just as important as spending 20mins staring at the League Two table.
18. Whatever you think you know about football in a different country, you don’t. You really don’t.
19. Head over heart, people. Once you’ve picked your selections, remove the ONE you think is most likely to let you down. This will serve you well.

Remember, on a Saturday at 1330pm – Bookmakers  are given a list of the top 12 most backed results from the weekend’s fixtures. You know how many times in the last 3 seasons all 12 have won on the same day? 13 times. The most recent being Saturday the 17^th of January, 2015. It’s rare, so don’t go mass-hunting favourites like it’s a flawless plan.

Bet wisely…

Over and out.

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Listen up Greg Dyke, here’s what I’d do….. 10 things.

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Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!

I really am bloody useless when it comes to this blogging thing, granted – I’ve never proclaimed myself to be a budding journalist, but I really should be averaging more than 3 blog posts a year.

I had the idea to write this – believe it or not – about 2/3 months ago, I even spent a night covering a 1m high whiteboard in information and points I wanted to make, I just never had the time! At least now this will give me something to shamelessly plug over the festive period above and beyond my @sundaynightslot podcast ramblings.

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Anyway: This post is reflecting on Greg Dyke’s speech, and the things I would do if I was in his position.

As most of us know, Greg Dyke has been tasked with saving England’s footballing future, with ensuring tournament success and with re-structuring the English game to make that possible. So far, he’s set up a commission of ex-players, coaches, and other notable figures, as-well-as asking fans to get in touch with various ideas/theories they think may help.

So….what would I change? A ten step plan…

1) “That wall was NEVER 10 yards!”

If you were to plot a graph, on a Y axis have ‘How Annoying It Is’, and on the X axis have ‘How Easy It Is To Stop’ then this has got to be high on the priority list…. Encroaching walls at free-kicks. The ref marks out his 10 paces and your opponents start wiggling forward. Drives me insane.

Well, there IS a solution – been used in South America for 10 years – vanishing spray.

Vanishing spray also doubles up as a good way to ruin needlessly flashy boots.

For those of you who don’t know what this foam is, or what it does; the referee carries the spray in a small 120 gram aerosol can, when he awards a free kick he steps 10 yards and sprays a white line on the pitch to mark the correct position of the wall, the line evaporates within a minute or so.

The idea behind the spray is to give officials a visual aid, and to make attempts at bending the rules more apparent.

2) “It costs too much to go to football!”

“Against Modern Football”, “Enough is Enough” – The spotlight was on Arsenal last season when Manchester City fans were charged £60 for their Emirates Stadium experience. Since that, many clubs have come under scrutiny to lower the costs to fans. The reaction has been mixed, Stoke City went first, and provided free coach travel to their away-dayers, others have entered agreements with other clubs: a mutual £10 a ticket, from Swansea/Newcastle/West Brom for away fans is an example, whilst the big boys have been a little more shy in helping out. The ever-present argument of “paying more to watch the good sides” becomes obsolete when you’re not prepared to lower the prices in subsequent times of lesser success.

My solution is simple, and it can be imposed by the FA; I charge your fans – what you charged mine.

This gives the power back to the supporters, Arsenal don’t care if they piss off Norwich fans – but they’ll quickly care if Gooners are complaining at being charged £62 for the return fixture at Carrow Road.

3) “How on earth has he given that?!”

In an ideal world, I love the idea of the referees being connected to microphones – with their voices being boomed across the stadium like in the NFL. Explaining their decisions to the spectators inside the ground…

…. But that’s too big-a step from the silence we’re subjected to now.

I’m proposing we meet in the middle, and referees have the gagging order lifted and they can take themselves out of the line of abuse post-match.

14^th September 2013. Manchester United 2-0 Crystal Palace. Referee: Jon Moss.

Ashley Young is moving toward goal, Kagisho Dikgacoi is contesting the ball when he goes to ground in a desperate attempt to dispossess the United winger. Jon Moss is 15 metres behind and awards a foul, his assistant is unsighted, the Manchester United players are claiming for a penalty kick, and Eagles players are debating if it was even a foul. Jon Moss puts his hand to his microphone/earpiece in communication with his assistant.

Penalty. Awarded.

The incident in question.

Television replays show the incident to be around 3-4 yards outside the box, keen lip-readers begin to analyse the conversation between the officials: “I can’t help you, I really can’t help you with that” are the words from the assistant. 

Jon Moss was labelled: “cheat”, “bias”, “pro-Man Utd”, “gutless”, “elitist”, “not-fit-for-purpose”, and once I was finished… others called him names too. In reality – it was an honest mistake, taken with an unsighted view.

My expectation isn’t for referees to come out after every game, or even for referees to come out when asked. I want the control to be with the referees, so that in instances like the aforementioned; Jon Moss can come out and say:

“Yeah, I got that one wrong, I knew it was a foul but the angle that Ashley fell at I mistook it for a penalty – I spoke with the assistant but the incident wasn’t clear with him, I went with my gut decision” completely to the referees discretion.

All I want is accountability, or a chance to explain themselves.

So – that was the first three….. They were the EASY ones. They can be changed overnight. What are you waiting for, FA?

The next ones require a little more thought, a little more consideration, and would take a little more time:

4) “Did you know, from 2007-2012 Chelsea spent more money on compensating sacked managers, than Arsenal did on buying players?”

The list is endless. ENDLESS. How many managers have been brought in as the ‘next big step in the history of a club’ only to be sacked 3 months later, and the club having paid £2,000,000 in compensation? The manager’s left with a damaged reputation, and the club are back to square one.

The current tenures of Premier League managers. 17/12/2013.

It doesn’t help anyone. Particularly when, like with Di Canio’s Sunderland, you have 10+ newly signed players who won’t be departing with the man who signed them.

My suggestion: All new managers – regardless at what level – begin their tenure with a 1 year deal, no-more no-less. 

The only way young managers will develop is if they’re given a chance, 1 year is the minimum length of time to impose a style and philosophy on your club. If after a year it’s not right, you part company, easy. This may not work in the Premier League due to the financial rewards of safety, but the introduction at lower league could see a better class of coach develop. Compensation is killing clubs who are entering deals without thought. It’s in the interest of both parties to begin relations conservatively.

Final note, I do understand that sometimes it just doesn’t work. So I would leave the mutual consent option in there.

5) “I want to be a coach, but it costs way too much”

We can’t begin to develop top level footballers if we don’t have the quality in place to do so, and it’s no-coincidence that nations like Germany and Spain are able to field two-or-three XI’s with the ability to beat England. These numbers are slightly disputed, but England has 1,161 coaches at Uefa ‘A’ level compared with 12,720 in Spain and 5,500 in Germany. At pro licence level, England has 203 coaches, Spain 2,140 and Germany more than 1,000.

THAT’S A HUGE DIFFERENCE…..

(Yes, please read that in a loud, shouting, Scottish accent, it helps for dramatic effect).

(Did you go down the Alan Hansen route? or the Shrek route? Either way… I’m not impressed)

…..Coaching badges vary in price: Levels 1 and 2 are do-able, £100 and £300 respectively.

UEFA B will cost you £695 if you are a registered coach and £905 if you are not.

UEFA A (Part one) will cost you £2,590 if you are licensed as a coach and £3,370 if you’re not.

UEFA A (Part two) will cost you £1,970 if you are licensed, and £2,560 if not.

And finally, for UEFA Pro Licenses – That’s the elite – you need to be invited, usually ex-players or existing coaches. No point in focusing there at this stage, but that’s the pinnacle.

So, the cost to get Mr X, the generic football lover on the street, from coaching his local side to a UEFA ‘A’ level could cost over £7k………… Go back to bed.

I’m not suggesting that we cheapen the courses, lessen their quality or even create an express version – but more funding has to be made available to get coaches through to that next level, to lessen the strain on the individual and develop the quality of coaching at levels below the Premier divisions.

League’s 1 and 2 should be a development ground for young British managers – I hate seeing clubs appoint a foreign import under the fictional pretence of “a better football culture”, if more funding for coaches can be made available in the UK – particularly at the lower levels of the Football League – then the quality will come up through the leagues, like players do. It needs a 5 year plan, structured investment, and an attainable goal to shoot for.

The evidence is there at some clubs already, Crewe have a stellar academy in place now, and Southampton are a shining example of the rewards it can all bring. All through coaching the coaches.

6) “The club don’t care about us!”

This point could easily derail into a spiral on how beautiful the German football model is because they respect and love the fans so so so so so so much…. But why add to what’s already the most drawn-out blog topic of the past decade? We know already… We get it.

*Enter generic photo of the Westfalenstadion Southern Terrace* – Every blog post in 2013 needs one, right?

The essence of the German fan:club relationship comes from the fan ownership, the sense of belonging to the club you support and pay money to watch. 50+1 is an idealists view, it was achievable in Germany as the league was in a poor financial position – they were re-forming their game top to bottom, and they had the foresight to sacrifice European and International successes while the sport developed. England, for various reasons, won’t accept that.

So, as 50% fan ownerships aren’t always feasible in the UK – how about 20%?

Benefits far outweigh the draw-backs for a larger fan-ownership; involved fans find it harder to boo when things don’t go the right way, they can’t call for a managers head when they had a hand in employing him. Fans can also select a representative to the board on a season-by-season basis, giving fair representation without saturating an existing board-room environment.

It also would see a dramatic increase in attendances, your loyalty to a club, and passion toward them is only heightened if you have the feeling of involvement – You OWN your club…. Regardless how little the share may be.

The only issue that remains is who will be the first to go… Once one does, they all will, spread the financial burden (and risk) on investors and have the club living within their means. Lower level clubs will kick it off, but for me, the first ‘bigger club’ to fully embrace Fan-Ownership will be Wigan Athletic. Dave Whelan, an aging businessman, “Mr. Wigan”, plus – he’d love the ability to say: “I was the first person to involve fans in my club”, Sky Sports would have a field day as well.

Did you know Dave Whelan broke his leg once? No-one ever seems to mention that.

7) “Hoof”

You’ve played Sunday/Saturday league football, you’ve watched it, one of the things you’ll hear managers say is: “Let’s get the ball down, pass it, we’re better than they are technically…. Now let’s go boys…” to a brief, 5 min, exchange of short balls and 85mins of:

HOOOOOOF……. HOOOOOOF……. HOOOOOOF.

Grassroots has embraced the targetman/poacher partnership for too long; football has progressed since, and the game is now calling for space finders, the people who can thread a pass, staying on their feet and moving off the ball.

Our grassroots game is dominated by the physical attributes of the players, not the skill, only because the pitch dimensions suit it, the 3 most feared players you’ll face? The physical striker, the quick winger with an inconsistent end product, and the deep lying distributor with an accurate-ish long ball – English professional sides are littered with those players too, it’s systemic from grassroots culture. Good technical footballers get lost amidst the long-ball game, the huge pitches, and an overly physical match-up.

Zidane famously grew up playing on the concrete courts in the backstreets of Marseille, Nasri followed him. The Brazilian dribbling ability derives from their un-even, sandy filled, hard pitches – improving close control. The link between a nation’s grassroots and the culture at the highest level is incontrovertible. (love that word).

We have the weather for grass in the UK, we’re lucky in that, what we now need to do is make 11 a side pitches smaller nationwide. Remove the temptation to hit it long and improve close-play. From there, coaches will be able to see the players who are technically superior and fitness can be developed separately. Spatial positioning, vision, and awareness are attributes you’re born with, our issue isn’t that we don’t have the talent, it’s that the football culture in this country doesn’t allow us to unearth it.

8) “The referee has rushed into it, and got it wrong.”

I’m actually fully supportive of a total over-haul in refereeing practises (https://t12thman.wordpress.com/2011/09/07/blatters-ignorance-to-a-plea-of-help-the-referees-paradox/) but to do all that is another matter. I’ll keep it at base level:

Referees should have the ability to ask the fourth official to review a major decision. Not up to the managers, captains, anyone… Just the referee. Why are we forcing referees to make million-pound decisions in real-time when there’s a TV camera that can show him it in slow-motion in under 10 seconds lapse? It’s staggering how football has been kept in the dark ages while other sports embrace the technological enhancements in the world.

The cynics will argue that it takes control away from the referees; but I feel it empowers them to officiate in a fair and proper manner. Referees will still be able to put their personalities onto a match; the leniency of Howard Webb, the pro-penalty-giving nature of Mike Dean. But the integrity of the sport will remain, and the ‘buck’ will ultimately stop with the referee, as it should.

4th officials are wasted breaking up petty spats, let them help referees.

9) “The agent is turning his head”

There’s not many things more soul destroying than seeing players like Jack Rodwell, Wilfred Zaha, Scott Sinclair, Danny Wilson et al, ditch weekly first team football – and go for that big-money move to the star club, only to sit on the bench and let their talents rot.

Who’s to blame? For me… It has to be agents. Agents are a fundamental problem in football. I could write a Jerry Maguire style memo about the culture of agents but we all know what they are.

The main problem, for me: Is agents are paid as part of the signing process – the agent’s fee is wrapped into the transfer of a player, it’s usually a % of the fee and its purpose is to say: “Thanks for getting him to join us and not them”

Agents get a pay-day when a player moves clubs, so are they really neutral enough to advise a young star?

There’s two options:

A) The FA establish, and enforce, a neutral advisory body – for all players in England under the age of 21. This body decides the most logical step for the player’s development, be it – let the big club buy him, and loan him back (the transfer fee can be spread over multiple payments/earn-outs etc),  approve the transfer outright, or the panel can advise against it.

The player can over-rule the panel, but must wait until the subsequent transfer window to do so.

This would allow, theoretically, the player to properly assess his options, before diving into a big money move (keeping in mind that this would only happen in the rare occasions the panel decided against it).

B) Agents are no longer exclusively paid as part of the signing process, but part of the contract completion process.

This would require clubs to enter a pact, essentially, but where the British game is so unique is that we – historically – don’t export that many players, the desire is to stay in the country, it could work well.

Agents are paid when the contract is complete, or when the player/club reach a mutual agreement to sell. The theory behind this is that it stops scumbag agents from turning a players head just so he can get a few more quid….. Also, we’re all getting seriously bored of the Wayne Rooney to Chelsea story.

Either way, the benefit of this would be that young talents have a better chance to see their potential, to complete their development at the club where it was established.

10) Co-mission impossible. 

With these posts, by the time you get to number 10 the writer is usually so finger-numb that they begin to divulge into irrelevant bullshit, ramblings or an anecdote about their experiences of other writers. Not for me…. No way… I’m more switched on.

………….So finally, as Greg Dyke takes the role of Nick Fury, and here’s his avengers:

• Former England boss, Glenn Hoddle
• Former Leeds manager and FA technical director, Howard Wilkinson
• Ex-England defender, Danny Mills
• Football League chairman, Greg Clarke
• New PFA chairman and Chesterfield player, Ritchie Humphreys
• Crewe director of football, Dario Gradi
• FA chairman, Greg Dyke
• FA vice-chairman, Roger Burden
• Roy Hodgson (late appointment)
• Manchester United player, Rio Ferdinand (late appointment)

90% of them are actually a good choice, Dario Gradi is the stand out for a savvy inclusion – taking someone from an environment which required developing, and not buying.

Glenn Hoddle is on there as being an ex-England manager, but with Hodgson’s inclusion – he’s now a needless extra mouth to feed, particularly when he’s desperate for a return to the White Hart Lane hot-seat so would have a severe conflict of interests.

You could look at including Liam Brady, having run the Arsenal academy since 1996, and retiring in 2014 – the Irishman, who resides in London, could be the ideal consultant when discussing matters of player development. Stars from Wilshere to Henry have built or developed talents (starting at different ages) from the Arsenal set up.

Additionally, as well as looking to Germany for ideas in developing talent, the self-imposed restrictions of Athletic Club Bilbao stand out as another source of efficiency in coaching. The club is known for its policy of bringing Basque players through the youth set up, and only signing players who have been trained or born in the Basque regions, yet remain consistently competitive.

For England to win the 2022 World Cup, and for the other nations of the UK to achieve their goals of Qualification, it will take a synergy of all things football. The commission is a good start, but it must now embrace different ideals and cultures – before deciding on a plan and implementing it.

Dyke caught on camera giving his reaction to England’s World Cup draw. WHOOPS.

If you made it this far, I salute you.

Feedback is always welcome, you’ll get me on my twitter – also, if you have any specific questions you want to ask, send them to @SundayNightSlot, and I’ll read them out on the podcast and try and give a verbal answer.

See you in another 5 months….

Over and out.

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Noise about Moyes. Has this window really been a disaster for The Red Devils?

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Back again – told you I’d be a bit more frequent with these. I was going to write another one before the turn of the window, but the RT/favourite monsters are out in force at this time of year – and they really enjoy the feeling of smearing egg on someone’s face.

The transfer window had plenty of winners and losers, as it always does. The winners: Spurs, Everton, Cardiff, Southampton. The losers? A more subjective debate…; Newcastle, Sunderland and Manchester United are the names you’ll see mentioned a bit more.

It’s Manchester United I want to dissect, though.

Moyes got his man, in the end.

Tweets: Manchester United.

@Guardian_Sport: Manchester United inquest begins after David Moyes era opens in farce.

@waldron97: Unprofessional panic buy with Fellaini, shows they couldn’t acquire top targets otherwise they would have got him earlier for £23.5m

@ZcottAFC: Like an Italian mafia movie. The Godfather dies and the son takes over, but nobody respects him.

@TomKirk_:  The issue is how they conducted their business rather than who they ultimately signed. (i.e. declared interest in 7+ players).

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The frustration continues throughout twitter. On deadline day ‘#MoyesOut’ was trending for around an hour between Arsenal’s unveiling of Mesut Ozil and the first signs of movement at Old Trafford.

So, the core of this blog post: Am I the only person who thinks Manchester United had a good transfer window?

Throughout July & August I maintained my stance on Moyes, and on Manchester United; it was something along the lines of:

For me, the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson and the welcoming of David Moyes is all the disruption the club needed – the backroom staff were restructured, the players have been unsettled and the board room has had a shake up. Bringing in new faces would only bring another issue: footballing anxiety: Will I play? Am I still in contention? Does Moyes want me? 

Furthermore, on reflection, David Moyes is still trying to dissolve the legacy of Sir Alex, and try and put his stamp on a Championship winning dressing room. He’s toyed with 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, and a flat 4-5-1, all with mixed success. Moyes couldn’t complete his business early because he hadn’t spent sufficient time with the squad. So he did what anyone would do in his position, blank cheque book and a big club… He went for a player he’s always liked: Cesc Fabregas.

As the window continued and players still hadn’t signed – the media spotlight was shining on him, fan pressure mounted and there was a club-wide concern when the fixture list was announced.

Sunday. September 1^st. 2013. Moyes’ third game in charge.

By this stage, we’re starting to catch a glimpse of the Moyes footprint. The initial set up of 4-2-3-1 lacks impetus, Liverpool take the lead and they’re looking comfortable. Moyes takes a jump to 4-4-2(4-4-1-1). The attacking threat intensifies – there’s clarity in the tactics. Full backs are overlapping,

Carrick is sitting deep and protecting the centre-backs, Welbeck is running off Van Persie and keeping mobile. Wingers are attacking Wisdom and Enrique.

It’s at this point, 3 games in, that you see a target area: Moyes has his wingers hugging the touchline – further spread than how Sir Alex had them – but Liverpool’s tight-knit midfield of Gerrard–Lucas–Henderson is proving too much for Carrick-Cleverley to handle, to adapt Man Utd will need a physicality to protect Carrick. This match was a turning point for Moyes because he came away from it with a priority; A ball winning midfielder.

Image from the game – An example of the midfield battle, look at Liverpool’s 3: All swamping Cleverley.

On deadline day, he had two targets for the CDM position. 1) Sami Khedira, 2) Marouane Fellaini. He had a deal on the table of Ander Herrera, and he was interested in the left-back position, though wasn’t prioritising it. When the Baines deal collapsed, I believe he was happy to continue with Evra for the remainder of the season, the Coentrao deal smells like an agent called him and highlighted his availability – it was a last-minute pounce, so no surprise it didn’t come off.

I then went back to twitter, re-spoke to a few of the fans mentioned above. There was another key area: Manchester United’s Academy has failed to deliver for a few years – there’s a longing for their very own Jack Wilshere/Raheem Sterling. – Moyes has done some under-the-radar signings of young players, and bolstered the resource of the academy. Long term strengthening.

Some of the criticism of Moyes has been beyond harsh. All things considered, you need to respect that he’s retained Rooney – that he’s working towards getting Kagawa back to fitness and that he’s discovered a tactical problem and spend £27,000,000 to solve it. I expect a much more active window from Manchester United in January, until then the fans need to fulfil Sir Alex’s final wishes in charge: Get behind the new manager.

All-in-all, it’s been a sensible transfer window for a club that has a little bit of rebuilding to do. Man Utd are still competitive in the Premier League and there is no real expectation in the Champions League. The club are set up for the elusive top four finish and an ‘under the radar’ season. The more Moyes is out the spot light, the better. Any manager coming in would have had rebuilding to do. Three seasons will be the barometer of Moyes as a manager at this size club, not one transfer window.

#MoyesIn

A mention to Jamie Keating – Jamie has helped me complete, edit, and provided fan-based ideas for this blog post. He’s a Manchester United fan. If you enjoy this blog, give him a follow. Follow @jkeating89

Over and out.

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Transfers. Opinions, thoughts and eye-openers.

 

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As Marca continue to talk – how many people are continuing to listen? The desperation of transfer windows really do bring out the worst in twitter. Last Summer was the “Year of the ITK”, what do we have this year? The ‘clued up journalist’ and the ‘man with inside contacts he can’t talk about’ seem to be striding out in front. Boring. My advice? Don’t get excited until you see it on your club website and his smiling face is holding the shirt. Nuri Sahin (2011, Arsenal) and the recent Gary Hooper (QPR) are proof that being at a club’s ground means nothing. 

1) I thought he was Gunner sign?

When a club is interested in a player, there’s a generic transfer routine they all follow.

Declare interest (receiving club can dismiss).
Indicative offer (receiving club can reject/accept in principle).
Approach players agent (to gauge interest from client).
Formal offer (negotiations begin at this stage, teams will sometimes authorise the player to begin medical process if they’re confident a deal will be agreed – this is what Peter Odemwingie thought was happening between Queens Park Rangers and West Bromich Albion.
Personal terms (Contract length, agents fees, signing on fees, fee from the old contracts).
Transfer complete.

Arsenal completed those first 3 stages, the indicative offer of £22m was good – until Napoli declared an interest. It seems Arsenal fans feel Real Madrid owe them something? Or didn’t act honourably? Ridiculous.

Real Madrid did to Arsenal, exactly what Arsenal did to Manchester City on both the Samir Nasri and Emmanuel Adebayor deals. They accepted a fee in principle, before finalising their asking price at the formal stage.

When Real Madrid wanted more money, Arsenal didn’t value him in the same region – and were eager to avoid a bidding war with Napoli. So, Arsenal moved on to another transfer target. Liverpool’s Luis Suarez.

2) Let’s talk about Cesc, baby.

Sorry to use a TV reference, but have you ever seen those American Sketches when they use ‘Garrett Morris – Headmaster of the New York School for the Hearing Impaired’? This is what Manchester United need, they need this guy to sit in the room with them and punctuate the fact Barcelona don’t want to sell.

Admittedly, there is a hilarious irony here. Given Barcelona poked, pinched, bit and fought their way to landing Fabregas , using every trick in the book, using every player in their power and exploiting the notoriously vague Tapping Up laws held by UEFA – they’re now upset that Manchester United are ignoring their pleas? Come off it.

But at the end of the day, he’s not available. When Barcelona signed him his buy-out clause was 200m Euros, and we’ve recently learned Arsenal have a buy-back option in the region of £37m. Aside from the Gunners, not many others have a hope.

An interesting addition to this, Sid Lowe (The Guardian) has an interesting theory as to why United are confident over Fabregas. If true, Darren Dein has played them rightly. Lowe thinks Dein is using United to remind Barcelona how important Fabregas is and others would take him. Clever. Darren Dein may be hated, but he does look after his clients.

3) Is he going to Bale on Spurs?

Similar to with Luka Modric, there’s a lot of talk around Bale being promised: “One more season – if we don’t make the Champions League, you can leave.”

Do I believe it? Well, you don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to read between the lines here. Here’s some key points.

– AVB has stated contract talks with Gareth Bale have been ongoing since last year. That should ring alarm bells. Take their London rivals, Chelsea and Arsenal. Frank Lampard was desperate for a new deal, and got one in under 3months. Then there’s Tony Adams at Arsenal, who famously said: “I’ll sign whatever contract they put in front of me – I just want to play.” If Bale was committed to Tottenham, in 12+ months of discussions, something would have been resolved.
– Gareth Bale has twitter. If a player is committed, it really isn’t that difficult to make your feelings known. The only reason you wouldn’t tweet, or publically comment, on your position – is if you didn’t know.
– Finally, it’s Real Madrid. Arguably the biggest club in world football. That would test the resolve of any player, let alone a player feeling shackled by a lack of success.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

There’s no smoke without fire, Madrid are obviously interested – and we all know how low Spanish clubs will sink to get the player they want.

And Let’s not forget, Levy has a new stadium to fund. He’s a property man, the attraction of bricks and mortar draws him. He wants to stabilise long-term and there’s a cash-cow that will help him do that. What % of a stadium will £60m buy?

Replacements? Roberto Soldado or Edin Dzeko are leading the way. I believe Dzeko is a better buy. He’s got Premier League experience, he’s a more physical presence and I think he’d be cheaper.
Soldado has a fantastic goal record, but it’s a fantastic goal record in Spain. Spain. Any goal record in Spain is cheapened by the fact no-one can defend. Clean sheets are as rare as rain, and it’s not uncommon to see 6 goal matches – Soldado brings a risk, and Spurs need someone who can hit the ground running. Dzeko is the better option, for me.

4) And finally, what does a Transfer Request mean? 

In the case of a transfer request, the player is publicly stating his desire to move, and encouraging other clubs to make an offer for him. Due to the public nature of transfer requests, they may often be used by players to air their grievances in the open, such as frustration over contract negotiations or clash of personality with the manager.

…..But we know that.

The finer details of a transfer request are in contract law, and the breaching of contracts. For example: Arsenal wish to buy Suarez. Suarez and Liverpool have a contract in place stating that the player will represent the club, and the club will remunerate him for doing so. Straight forward enough. However, if Liverpool accept an offer from Arsenal, they’re terminating the contract – and Suarez is therefore entitled to loyalty bonuses, as is his agent – which vary depending on the length of time the player has left on his deal (3 years). The £50m Liverpool seek will factor in the pay-offs obligated from them. Should Suarez submit a transfer request, he breaks the contract – and forfeits those bonuses and Liverpool would be more likely to accept a lesser fee. Which is why my prediction is: Suarez to submit a transfer request, and the deal to go through in the region of £44m. The entitlement varies depending on your interpretation – I understand players to pick up around 30% of their remaining salary, if sold without submitting a request. Suarez being on £90-100k per week, you’d estimate he’d be getting £4-5m, and his agent £1.5m.

 

To wrap this one up, take twitter with a pinch of salt. ITK’s prey on the desperation of supporters hoping for a successful season. It’s best to see the story for what it is, read between the lines, and save all excitement (and tattoos! **KAKA**) until the deal is done.

Just Wait Until It’s Official.

What do you think? You know where to find me on twitter.

Follow @_the12thman

Over and out!

Old Firm Questions – My extract from an upcoming Scotzine issue.

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It’s been so long since I last did one of these that I no-longer think I can keep apologising at the start of every one. Like goals from John Arne Riise, they’re rare – but usually they’re worth it.

A week or so back, popular Scottish Fanzine ‘Scotzine’ put out a call for Old Firm fans to be in touch – and to do a Q&A session on their experiences. It seemed to have been a decent enough response, and seeing I keep being harassed about who I support on twitter I thought I’d upload it.

In future, I’ve a few posts lined up, examples; ‘zonal vs man-marking’, ‘fixture lists – how the FA should do it and why’, and I’ll probably give in to the hipster urge of writing about the German League, and why they’re so much better than us.

So, my Q&A with Scotzine:

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The Old Firm, from a Glasgow Rangers fan.

How long have you supported your club?
Since I was about 9/10 years old, but it wasn’t until the 01/02 season was the first I was old enough to really get into it.

Why do you support your club and what makes supporting them so special?
My parents ‘sides’ of the family were divided. Dad, Celtic, Mum’s side tended to be more on the blue side of the fence; but the area of Glasgow I was brought up in was slightly more in-favour of The Gers. I think Rangers had just come of the back of a dominant spell. Rangers are special, in my opinion, because the club is the most successful (decorated) club in world football. The fans are loyal (38,000 STs in League 3 proves that) – we have history of accolades and are known worldwide for it.

When was your first Old Firm derby match?
A 0-1 loss at Ibrox in February 2006, Maciej Zurawski scored early but it was a rather tame affair. Roy Keane’s first old firm game – he was booked for the most cynical foul on a breakaway Dado Prso, took me years to realise how smart that foul was – but it stopped a 4 vs 2 break.

Roy Keane gets his first, and only Old Firm booking.

How would you describe the emotion and feeling at experiencing the atmosphere and the derby game as a whole?
Tense, if I’m honest it’s not all that enjoyable, it means almost too much. Slightly less nervous watching them on TV (I live in England now). The only time I’ve really been able to enjoy a goal live was THAT Maurice Edu one in the 92nd minute, because I knew it was so late.

What is/are your favourite Old Firm derby game?
4-2 from a few seasons back stands out, when Naismith got a double and even Lafferty managed a goal. But, I’d probably say the 2002/2003 Cup Final, Lovenkrands scoring a brace, the Barry Ferguson Free-Kick and Hartson missing a penalty I think. That was a colossal battle all throughout the match, McLeish really announced himself then. Terrific game.

Worst moment in the Old Firm derby game?
The game I felt most bitter about was, and I can only half-remember the score, was Diouf at Celtic Park. Rangers weren’t getting the rub of the green and had Whitaker sent off pretty early for a nothing tackle of the half-way line. Bougherra also received his marching orders and Diouf was red carded at the end. Lennon confronted Diouf (neither of which are angels) and left his technical area to do so – then he and McCoist had a tear-up. It got out of hand, but I always feel the referees got that one wrong and lost control.

Has Scottish football and your club’s games lost any of its spice and appeal with no derby game?
Yes. But it’s been losing appeal with everyone for years for a few reasons. Edinburgh derbies don’t really excite me, Dundee Derby is usually a walk-over. The SFA used the ‘flashpoints’ of Old Firm games to market them to Sky, people watched for the fighting and horror tackles, but they gave all the money to the Old Firm teams, so they got stronger and pushed further ahead. They did this for 15 years and now are confused why no-one else can compete and the League Title is decided in September.

 What is your opinion of media coverage of your club and of the Old Firm in general?

Sensationalist. Both sets of fans are hell-bent that the media hates them more but it’s never been the case. The media has always sided with the most successful side, and then focused negative attention on the side doing not so well. The papers will create feuds on the pitch, and then smear the players for rising to it. They’ve done it with different players over the years, and will always do it.

What is your take on the Offensive Behaviour Bill in Football?
It’s a start, the SFA needed to do something and at least they’re now acting. With these things, they take a few years to iron out creased, and I fully expected an amended bill to come out soon – probably when Rangers return.

Is there any other game that can better the Old Firm derby?
I don’t think so, El Theatrico in Spain has good technical play but the diving is off-putting. Liverpool v Man Utd has similar levels of passion, but I think in recent years the games have been a bit stale and lackluster. You never have a boring Old Firm match. North London Derbies are exciting, but haven’t got years of such competition – Tottenham have only been in Arsenal’s sights for 5 years. Galatasary vs Fenerbache? Perhaps that’s of the same nature. For me, Old Firm games are special, the best, a city, a nation at times, families, can be divided for a day all pending the result of a football match. It’s astounding how much it effects Glasgow, and it goes all the way down through the youth systems.

If you could name an Old Firm XI who would it be – both Celtic and Rangers player in it….
Whilst I ‘know’ the legends of yester-year, not seeing them play live I’m going to avoid the old generations – and name my XI from the last 10 years-ish. This is on ability, performance in OF games, and presence under pressure.

Klos
Hutton – Weir – Mjallby – McNamara,

R. de Boer, Ferguson, Lennon, Thompson,

Larsson, Lovenkrands,

Special mentions for: Nacho Novo, Kenny Miller, Chris Sutton, John Hartson, Allan McGregor, Scott Brown, Rab Douglas, Steven Naismith, Stan Petrov and Lubo Moravčík.

Does Scottish football need the Old Firm?
Yes, it needs the two biggest clubs, but it also needs a fundamental shake-up and someone else to win the league. Hibs look the most stable, but they’re miles off. I’d love to see an Arab come in and mix-things-up. Scottish football needs restructuring and a more competitive league.

Would you like to see the Old Firm playing in a European league or in the EPL? 
The idea of the Dutch/Belgian/Scottish league interested me, all 3 nations have big clubs who have suffered from non-competitive leagues. I think the idea had some substance.
EPL? Do-able, but English sides have no reason to want them in – and with Scotland’s vote on independence up-coming I don’t expect the issue to be resurfaced any time soon. Personally I think RFC/CFC would more than compete with the top clubs, but would take a period of stabilisation. The only way they could do it is to join the Conference North/South, and all clubs entered there – then make 3 Conference divisions: I.e. North, South, Midlands. Then break the rest of Scotland into regional leagues like in England. It could work with structure. Could see Hearts/Hibs/Aberdeen in bottom Championship/top L1. People site ‘travel’ as a problem, but Germany Bremen>Munich isn’t a bus ride and it works fine. In all honesty though, Perhaps, for now, only the Old Firm would gain anything, I don’t think the other clubs could really compete like they are in Scotland. We need to sort out our game, make it stronger and our clubs stronger before we can think of integration.
A good way to test the ground would be a ‘British League Cup’ – both nations competitions are going stale, could make it interesting.

Anything else you would like to add about the derby game?
Both fans don’t realise how much they miss each other, as someone who’s left Scotland and now blogs about football from neutral standpoint, it’s funny how bitter supporters can be, but really – they long for those games back. I noticed it last week in-fact, then I seen a Hibernian fan donate £50 to the Hearts fundraising. He said: “We hate them, but we’d miss them if they’re gone.” – Celtic may dislike Rangers, but they’re suffering with the absence, players wanting to leave and the attendance levels dropping. SFA is the first port of restructuring, for me – they’ve let situations at Hearts, Pars, Rangers, Dundee happen and more will follow. Fan-owned clubs, 50+1 is the future of football. Scotland should lead the way.

Tweet me what you think, you know where I am on twitter.

Over and out.

Follow @_the12thman

Rooney Rule. Opening the case…

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With the Premier League being centre of various race-rows over the past years, solutions are becoming popular talking points in the football community – one in particular is the Rooney Rule, used in America’s NFL.

What is the Rooney Rule?

The Rooney Rule was established in 2003 and named after Dan Rooney, the owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the chairman of the NFL’s diversity committee.

It requires NFL teams to interview at least one black or ethnic minority candidate for head coaching and senior football operation opportunities that become available, as part of a transparent and open recruitment process.

What’s this going to achieve?

Well, the logic is: More black managers = increased tolerance by the racist few towards a black influence on the sport = less incidents of racism.

Barack Obama (left) with Steelers Chairman Dan Rooney (right).

So, is the Premier League ready to adopt such a radical strategy? What will the implications be? Moreover, is it even needed?

The PFA’s chief Gordon Taylor, who has incorporated it into their 6-point-plan to eradicate racism is hopeful that the Rooney Rule will play a part in avoiding a breakaway black players union that has been publicly suggested by Manchester United defender Rio Ferdinand.

The F.A., like many of the black community, are disappointed at the lack of black managers in football. Of the 92 clubs in England, this number has rarely risen above three, varying season to season in the modern hire-fire culture.

In my opinion, the difference between the NFL and the Premier League is chronological, it’s all about the timeframes between a black sports-star’s big arrival, and the knock-on effect that had to role-model budding black stars into the respective sport, and then onwards into coaching.

Ernie Davis was drafted into the NFL in 1962, this was at a time of important civil rights movements and the country needed a marquee name in sport to set an example.

Ernie Davis – Running Back.

The Washington Redskins were the franchise to which he signed, before being traded to Cleveland Browns. 41 years before the Rooney Rule was put in place.

In football, in England, Viv Anderson was the first black man to play for England (full international) in ’93/94 season, since then we’ve only had 18-19 years, where 3 managers have made the switch permanently and many others Ince, Connor etc to less success. On top of this we’re slowly seeing the transitions being made into other areas, backroom ambassadorial roles like Vieira, or into the media eye like Chris Kamara, Earle, Wright, Barnes and many others.

There have been certain problems with the Rooney Rule that have been to the detriment of the NFL. One of these is that clubs have had readymade white replacements in mind for a vacancy, but had to waste time and money on interviewing a black candidate.

This is not just a waste of time and money for the organisation, but also the black candidate who held no realistic expectation of attaining the post. I can’t help but agree with this argument. If we put this argument in a footballing context, the events at Queens Park Rangers would be the perfect example of the rule being counterproductive. The club part with Mark Hughes and 3 days later replace him with Harry Redknapp. With risk of sounding cynical, Bhatia & Fernandes would have it in mind to have replaced Sparky with ‘Arry before they actually sacked the former.

The Rooney rule, if it were in existence currently, would mean that QPR would have had to delay their recruitment of a new manager in order to interview a black manager when they will inevitably appoint Redknapp anyway.

A final key point to note, is that the Premier League is in-fact a very open-minded league. Osvaldo Ardiles was the first ever foreign manager back in the 92/93 season, and 20 years on there’s now only 6 English Managers in the division – clubs are not afraid to make changes if it means success, regardless of ethnicity.

Tottenham’s Osvaldo ‘Ossie’ Ardiles.

To wrap up this piece, I feel we’re too early in pushing a race-solution – it’s not needed yet. In another 10 years and I’d expect to see 5+ black Premier League managers. The cynic in me is saying that various journalists are using the on-field racism issues of recent times to make themselves be seen as flag-bearers for equality.

What do YOU think?

Tweet me at @_The12thman

Over and out.

Follow @_the12thman

 

 

PFA Player of the Top 6 awards.

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Good to be back.

It’s the business end of the season, and with that comes the annual series of award ceremonies and it’s the opinion of many on-lookers that The PFA Player of the Year awards has an elitist short-list. One which fails to respect and register the talents of the clubs not as glamourous as the Forbes 500 applicants.

The PFA Shortlist;

Scott Parker, Tottenham Hotspur and England.

Wayne Rooney, Manchester United and England.

David Silva, Manchester City and Spain.

Robin Van Persie, Arsenal and Holland.

Joe Hart, Manchester City and England.

Sergio Aguero, Manchester City and Argentina.

 

Whilst it is fantastic to see half the short-list representing the home nation, there are many players who haven’t recieved the recognition their season has deserved. With that, I wanted to write chosen shortlist of players who were unlucky to miss the cut, along with who I believe should win it, and give my input to the Team of the Year.

My shortlist, although still showing a large representation of the big-clubs, is showing some of the unsung heroes of this season.

Michel Vorm. Swansea City.

After a baptism of fire at Eastlands, where he completed the highest saves-per-game record of any goalkeeper in the 2011-2012 season (11 saves) – Michel Vorm has gone from strength to strength, averaging 5.3 saves per game, acheiving 13 clean sheets and catching an average of 63% of shots. Additionally, he’s earned himself the nickname Penalty Killer with the Swansea faithful after some high profile penalty saves. He’s the highest points scoring Goalkeeper on Fantasy Football with 148 points and is selected by over 30% of players. He’s a man in form and expected to be on the plane to the Euros.

Alex Song. Arsenal.

After joining the Gunners in 2005 the Cameroonian has taken a few seasons to find his feet. This season has been his best season by a country-mile – many plaudits are starting to look at him as one of the finest holding midfield players, no only in the Premier League, but in football right now. With tackling successes in excess of 64% he breaks up the play fantastically, but he’s intelligent, with only 1 red card in his entire career he’s still aquired 12 yellow cards this season – tightrope. Crucially, he’s another element to his play which others like Barry, Lucas, Parker cannot boast; 14 assists. More than David Silva and Luka Modric combined.

Jonny Evans. Manchester United.

When Nemanja Vidic picked up his season ending injury, opposing teams were licking their lips at the thought of an aging Rio Ferdinand exposed along side: Positionally-awful-Jones or the adventurous-Smalling. Jonny Evans was given the nod and Sir Alex has never looked back. My Man-Of-The-Match in many big games, dominating the most talented individuals. My performance of the season came in the 2-1 win over Liverpool at Old Trafford, Suarez is often tricky and will look for an opportunity to dive – Evans was smart and had him under-control for the entire match. Evans has had a 100% tackling success rate in over 5 games this season, and makes my Team of the Year.

Vincent Kompany. Manchester City.

The LMA Manager 2004 prodigy has been a dominent force in the Manchester City defence, I was shocked he wasn’t nominated for the PFA Player of the Year award. He’s one of few players who can say; “Robin Van Persie didn’t score past me” after the Dutchman scored vs 17 different sides in the 2011/2012 season, and un-coincedentally Manchester City’s drops in form happened at the same time as Kompany’s injuries and suspensions. In the FA Cup 3rd Round between the two Manchester clubs, Wayne Rooney was savvy enough to know the importance of Kompany as he convinced the referee to send him off. Kompany will be pivotal to this seide for many years. 12 clean sheets and 4 man of the match performances over the season.  

Leon Britton. Swansea City.

Much has been made of Swanselona this season, and Leon Britton has been the maestro of their success. His passing stats are the highest in Europe, averaging 93.5% success rate over the season – Higher than Xavi. More notably, Leon Britton is also commanding a midfield which averages only 5 fouls per-game, the lowest of any side in top level European football. Leon Britton, Joe Allen and Gylfi Sigurdsson have set the Premier League alight, it will be interesting to see how they strengthen the back line and improve their striking options. Swansea are a threat.

Yohan Cabaye. Newcastle United.

There is perhaps no better day to be writing this, than the day after his pass-of-the-season for Papiss Cisse’s goal vs Stoke City. (see video). With only 8 assists and 5 goals, his statistics are mis-leading to his performances, much like Leon Britton, Cabaye finds himself as part of a working midfield. Supplying the ball to Ben-Arfa and relying on Cheik Tiote to win him the ball. At times, it’s the players who do not make the headlines that are the reason for your success. Yohan Cabaye retains the ball, and keeps it moving. In the Daily Mail’s player-ratings, Yohan Cabaye hasn’t recieved less than 7 all season, impressive.

These are players who are all very unlucky to miss out on the nominations, and much like the referees they employ, the FA have made the choice to over-look ‘smaller’ sides in favour of the bigger clubs. Any could have gone on to win it.

My Team of the Year was difficult to pick, and dispite the season not being over, I’m happy to unveil my choices;

                    Vorm.

Walker — Evans — Kompany — Baines.

    Britton — Cabaye — Yaya Toure. 

     Van Persie — Ba — Pilkington.

SUBS;

Krul,

Koscielny,

Clichy,

Carrick,

Dempsey,

McLean,

Aguero. 

I’d loveto know your opinions, so please, tweet me at my contact details; it’ll be fantastic to stir a debate.

Over and out.

Follow @_the12thman

January, to buy or not to buy? That is the question…

 

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I’m back.  

Shameful really, but with a new job and a busy life, I haven’t had the luxury of time to write a blog post recently. In spite of that, I’ve found time to keep up with the farcicals of football right now.

Since I left; Suarez has been banned for racism, rightly so, should have been longer in my opinion; John Terry has been charged by the police for the same offence; Arsenal find themselves with their worst point total after 22 games in all of Wenger’s tenure, and Tottenham are flying. 

It’s been a funny few months, but can we expect change?

Here are my views:

On January transfer expectations, after a dire display against Manchester United, subsidised by a manager seemingly hell-bent on having them in the Europa League, you really must wonder:

“He’s had no full-back’s fit since the Olympiakos game (December 6th) – where he played his only fit player in a game which was literally meaningless – since then he fumbled through December knowing he would be without a recognised full back until February.”

1) Why didn’t he highlight a defensive target and get a loanee cover in place?

2) Why hasn’t he ensured that funds were in place to make sure he could sign the loanee quickly? 

No-one knows but him.

We all know the results though; Arsene is being punished for his arrogance, losing a hat-trick of games, and they’ve now taken seven points from the last 18 available. Arsenal’s form is the joint-second worse in the league, and it’s single-handedly his fault. Of the goals conceded in the last three games, six of the seven have come directly from a mistake at full back. Could it be that a reluctance to spend £4m on a loanee will cost him £40m for the Champions League? And that’s excluding the player exodus that may happen should they fail to qualify.

If Arsenal don’t panic-purchase like they did in August, forget about the top four, they won’t even finish fifth.

You just feel for the fans who are paying an extra 6.5% on tickets when the performances are, at times, laughable. 

On Liverpool:  Liverpool have suffered the negative fates of the January window. Buying Andy Carroll (the worst signing in the history of world football) for such a high price will always bring pressure, but they’ve spend £75m on Downing, Carroll, Henderson and wrapped them up on such long contracts, that no-one is going to want to buy them. Additionally, they have no more funds to improve the squad. Between the two they end up with a team deep in limbo. This presents  worrying times, and it’s no wonder Liverpool were eager to swap Carroll for Tevez; it’s hilariously desperate. It’s like me attempting to trade my girlfriend for Zooey Dechanel, unlikely.  

So back to my Gooners, there’s some good in the window, a few fantastic purchases over the years. Arsenal utilised January back in 2009, signing The Lazy Magician; Andrei Arshavin for 15m, a signing which ensured a strong finish to the season. Since then however, the purchases have dried up.

On Arshavin: I’m a fan of Arshavin, even now. My theory is; Just because Wenger plays him at Left-Wing, it doesn’t make him a Winger.

Arshavin has always been creative. For Russia and Zenit he was instrumental playing in the CF role, linking up with the midfield, beating players, shooting at will and assisting in the plus 10’s.

Arsene, likes to play a 4-2-3-1, and because of this, he plays Arshavin out of position, instead of creating a ‘false number 10’ like Barcelona do, and playing a system which suits everyone.

Expectations are different for a winger. Arshavin’s not someone who’ll work hard without the ball, nor has he any intentions of tracking back, when you have full-back’s like Arsenal do, bombing on and hitting the by-line. You really have to wonder the tactical knowledge of Wenger when he insists on playing him at wide-left.

4-3-1-2 is needed, in my opinion. The back 4 picks itself, as does the goalkeeper.  Midfield 3 of Song, Arteta, Ramsey, Arshavin just behind; RVP and >Insert Striker here<.

Who should the striker be? Benzema, Olic, Kerzhakov. Anyone really, but it needs to be someone who’s an old fashioned STR. So that RVP could link up and wander around as he pleases. Dzeko, in a heart-beat.

On Gervinho I’ve defended Arshavin, so let me just revoke some of my previous comments on the wonderful; Gervinho.

Things I’ve said:

“Gervinho is the worst signing of Summer 2011”
“Gervinho is the worst player I’ve ever seen live”
“Gervinho is the worst finisher at the club”
“I would rather have Bendtner back, and as Club Captain, than need to spend another penny watching Gervinho”
“Gervinho makes Almunia’s contribution to the club look worthy of a Ballon D’or” 

Gervinho puts the ball wide.

SOME of the above, may – just may – be slightly harsh, so despite the fact he’s missed 9 one-on-ones, got himself sent off and single-handedly cost us games…. I want to just applaud his defensive work.

In recent weeks, due to Wenger’s reluctance to buy a replacement full-back, Coquelin and Djourou have been forced to adopt a make-shift role – where Djourou has been exposed, the LB position has always seemed that little bit safer. Why? I think Gervinho’s work-rate going backwards, is a lot more effective than he’s given credit for. Granted, it’s not his job, but it’s useful nonetheless.

That aside he’s still an atrocious finisher, and he’s pretty low down my personal preference of wingers. In-fact, with a full fit squad, I’d have him playing at Underhill with the reserves.

On the whole, Walcott and Gervinho are simply not good enough, but I’m supportive of a 4-4-2 type midfield with wingers, Wilshere next to Song for games that need width and fluidity. This is where Wenger needs to be more adaptable. 4-2-3-1 may work at Anfield, but it won’t work at home to Fulham. My 4-4-2 would probably feature Gervinho and Alex Oxlade Chamberlain. Both of them give more protection to the back-line which allows us to have 2 strikers.

But as always, we’re second guessing Arsene.

A repercussion to his arrogance and deliberate nature to not do something, solely because someone has told him too/when it’s been advised. It could literally define ‘frustration’, and that’s how the Gooners feel.

January 2011: Arsenal need to buy a defender.

Wenger doesn’t buy one, he perseveres with what he has and the club manage to finish 4^th in a 2 horse title race, get knocked out of 3 trophies in 4 weeks and lose our 2 most creative midfielders.

And for this reason I justify my critics on twitter. He is too wrapped up in himself, he does value his own stubborn ways over what’s best for the club, he is obsessed with HIS concept of value, not the market price.

He’s still playing a formation based around a player who’s gone.

He’s refusing to listen to the players, this was shown in Van Persie’s frustrations recently; He’s not respecting nor appreciating the fans, and opponents don’t fear Arsenal. They’re seen, rightly so, as frail, weak, uncertain, like at 2-0 down you can still win because one bad decision and they crumble.

A disgruntled Captain, is rarely a long-standing one.

Teams relish playing Arsenal because they know they can get something from the game.

I’m ready to move on from Wenger, Ivan Gazidis too, Peter Hill-Wood as well. The only scenario where I think I’d re-unite my faith in Arsene would be if David Dein was to return.

On boo boys;  

Fans pay their money, they have a right to boo, jeer, cheer and clap whomever they please.

I dislike it when fans boo during the match, i.e, the Blackburn fans booing Yakubu for celebrating a goal with the under-fire Steve Kean.

Blackburn's Boo-Boys.

I dislike fans ousting individuals, like the booing of Walcott, Eboue etc. There needs to be more support for a player having an off game.

I agree with fan booing a bad result, a poor referee or a horrific decision from a manager – Like taking off your best player at 1-1, ensuring that you lose the game, Arsene. However, there is no right or wrong way to be a fan, just like there is no right or wrong way to support. At one end of the scale there’s the ever-green “nothing is ever wrong” fans, who follow the notion that everything has a silver lining and will always talk about ‘next year’; and then there are the cynics who disagree with everything and hate everyone.

But I think booing serves a purpose. Wenger needed to know that taking off A.O-C for the sake of it, was wrong. Manchester United is not the game to ‘test’ players, to ‘give them a run out’ or to bring on a favourite out of sheer nostalgia. It’s the kind of game where you play to win. Especially at a club like Arsenal.

On fans

With all due respect, there’s “Fans” and there’s “Associates”.

The associates are those who have only been to one game, will watch a game if it’s on sky, and will get one shirt every three years. To these people; you are not a fan, you’re a follower. You enjoy them winning to feel part of a cult, or tribe, but you don’t adhere to the literal abbreviation of fan-atic.

The true fans are those who know the under 18s; those who remember the awful players who had six months and three appearances, and those who put up with Bulgarian commentary on a dodgy link just so they can see the game. It’s these same people who hit a solid 10 games a season, and never miss one unless it’s unavoidable.

My point? I’m starting to notice the difference between the two groups more and more. How the fans are being supported by other fans; whereas the associates are sharing and supporting the views of one another. The two are clashing.

I think when you have an actual passion, you have a right to voice your opinion, and but it’s usually the ‘Associates’ who think they have a right to silence the paying ‘Fans’ for being outspoken. Which in essence is a lead on from my point on ‘right or wrong way’ to be a fan, no-one has the right to tell someone how to support a team, but it seems to be the ‘associates’ who feel they have the right to.

 On how the season will finish?

 Premier League – Manchester City.
Carling Cup – Liverpool.
FA Cup – Tottenham.
Champions League – Bayern Munich (Arsenal semi-finals)

What a season we have left, though.

As always I welcome the debate, so get in touch with me on twitter on leave a comment below;

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Over and out.

Traditions making way for a new a generation in football, a round up;

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My last blog piece was written quite a while back now, and for that I need to say sorry. Since my last one I’ve got a new job, and a new flat too. It’s been a busy time. I’m writing this in a rather informal notion, so excuse my disregard for proper sentence structure or journalistic skills. It’s more about opinion, and for that – I want to see responses.

In football terms, Arsenal appear to have turned a corner. Those who follow my twitter-feed (see top) will know I was cautious about ‘counting chickens’; as the form and ability of the opposition was as questionable as the Gunners themselves. As it stands, a thumping win at Stamford Bridge and topping their Champions’ League group thus far, I believe as long as Arsenal are in the top five come January they’ll finish in that lucrative top 4 spot. If they’re smart enough to strengthen well, I even think 3rd place is do-able. With that thought in mind, I’ll stick to my prediction from my transfer blog in Summer;

Manchester City – Champions.
Manchester United – 2nd.
Arsenal – 3rd.
Liverpool – 4th.
Chelsea – 5th.
Tottenham – 6th.

Though, I must admit, Tottenham have been relatively impressive; I just think the further they go in the Europa League, the more it will harm their chances.

Thursday/Sunday seasons can be cursed for any side. Liverpool and Spurs could swap places; I do firmly believe Chelsea will fall behind but it will see a major haul in personnel at the club for the 2012/2013 season.

Back to Arsenal, and my worry is in their ability to do transfer dealings. Wenger won’t want to halt the growth of his young stars, but he needs some star quality. Mikel Arteta has been good, as has Ramsey and Song. Three solid players, but a Hazard type of character would really shake up the team – Mind, so would Arshavin if he found form. Though how is Arsene supposed to justify buying another CM when he already has arguably seven/eight possible suitors? It’s very hard to justifiably strengthen a side full of good, but not Ballon D’Or, players.

Next I want to talk about the Championship strugglers; Doncaster Rovers. With a lack of funds and an inability to compete on their field, they have invested in a new look strategy with the help of one of football’s real pantomine villains;

Willie McKay – I know you know the name, and now you’re thinking: “Wasn’t he that… uh… um… Hmmm.. He knows Redknapp, doesn’t he?”, Well McKay is a football agent, and perhaps would of the most media watched of them all after the police and political enquires into his transfer involvement with Jean Boumsong, Benjani and Amdy Faye. Most notably; “The Steven’s Enquiry” in 2007, which was the fall out of his arrest, and subsequent house raid as police investigated alleged corruption in football, all at the time Harry Redknapp was at Portsmouth, the club Amdy Faye then played for. For McKay, with current clients like El Hadji Diouf and Joey Barton, he’s always going to be interesting.

Willie McKay (right) at Doncaster Rovers last week.

Doncaster Rovers have hired Willie McKay on a 2-year deal in the role of ‘Transfer Consultant’; an advisory role. This is perhaps the most interesting story of the late-2011.

‘So what does that mean?’ – Basically, he is in charge of any ins and outs in the club and, with his various contacts in football, he’s got a fantastic plan up his sleeve to generate income for Doncaster. It’s a short-term plan with a long-term goal.

McKay has promised to bring in star names on short contracts, taking unwanted players from big clubs around Europe to put them in the shop window ergo selling them on to a club more befitting of their talent, and he (McKay) will get a cut of Doncaster’s profits. A relatively win-win situation: no? So far, Doncaster have signed Diouf, Chimbonda and McKay has even claimed Zinedine Zidane and Mahamadou Diarra are due to sign in January. Amazing.

So, from one club that’s fighting to keep itself competitive; to another commercially setting the tone in not only domestic, but international, sport. The brand, the PLC: Manchester United. In a previous blog, I expressed how impressed I was that they’ve secured sponsorship of their training kit via DHL – yes, training kit, for £40,000,000. That was enough money to secure the signings of Phil Jones and Ashley Young. In recent activities, Manchester United have now secured Zong as their ‘Official Pakistan Telecoms Sponsor’, their 15th worldwide communications sponsor, in stark contrast to their commercial rivals Arsenal, who have one, British giants: O2.

That’s enough commercial activity for one club, right? Wrong. Manchester United also have plans to launch a Worldwide Social Network, aiming to target, link and give content to their estimated 500 million fans. Man United are positively exploiting their global brand – another business lesson for the competition.

So to my next point, and I’ve been thinking this for a while so I just wanted to get my thoughts immortalised into the black-ink of the internet so when it happens I look like a genius;

Manchester United will ‘franchise’ a football team in the USA.

There are so many different catalysts which are pointing to it, I’m no Sherlock Holmes, but I know football – it seems a commercial and operational feasibility.

In 2003 Manchester United went on their first tour to the USA, the players were able to walk the streets of the busiest cities without as much as an autograph. Now, it’s 2011 and United sell-out the 61,500 strong Soldier Field for their pre-season clash with Chicago Fire.

Manchester United line up on their USA Tour 2011.

American businesses are pushing to be associated with Manchester United. After losing the MLS kit rights to Adidas, Nike (Man Utd’s manufacturer) are using the brand of the Red Devils and the Premier League to propel themselves as the face of the MLS game. Furthermore, American business multi-service providers ‘Aon’ spent £80 million – 4 years ago – to sponsor the United playing uniforms: with 6.5 million fans apparently based in the US. Those numbers explain why the likes of DHL, Audi, Epson and Singha are determined to pay handsomely for association with Manchester United too.

Next David Beckham has admitted this week that he is looking into the possibility of owning a MLS franchise after he finishes playing football. Given his allegiances with Manchester United, it seems a feasible ending. As for where; I could imagine them being based in Seattle (where Nike has their flagship store) or Chicago. Both cities Manchester United have utilised as a base on their US tours. Watch this space.

Next, and tying into the Manchester United universal brand and the USA Franchise Idea: Rio Ferdinand.

The twitter #movement of the England Centre-Back has propelled him to fame; his online ‘banter’ with CNN’s Piers Morgan has got him into the American eye, and he’s one of the most recognised English starts with American fans. Recently, he’s fallen out of favour with Sir Alex in favour of bleeding Phil Jones into the team, and with Chris Smalling and Evans progressing it seems he’s undoubtedly ‘over-the-hill’.

Next bold statement; He will be at Chicago Fire by 2013.

His children are 5, 3, and <1. It seems a good time to move, get them settled into the US life, increase his image and could see him becoming an international ambassador for the English game, as well as Manchester United. Right now, LA Galaxy and The New York Red Bulls are both seen as the two dominant forces in the MLS; no coincidence that these are both teams who have invested in ex-European stars. Chicago, the next most famous US City after the two already named – would love to get their hands on one themselves.

In having Ferdinand in the USA, and Beckham looking to buy a club, a Manchester United franchise is gaining momentum as a feasible idea.

The final big topic of recent times – and this a slight tedious link on from Ferdinand > Old Players getting toward the end of their top flight career – is John Terry.

The England Captain is at the centre of a police-led enquiry into alleged racism towards QPR’s defender, and Rio’s brother, Anton Ferdinand. Allow me to just offer me opinion on this, for me, in the trial-by-youtube case it does appear that Terry is saying: “You blind c***”.

However, when lip-reading, the words ‘blind’ and ‘black’ come across similarly, but Anton Ferdinand seems to be aggrieved enough to have launched a formal complaint with the Met Police and the FA.

Following the Wayne Bridge and John Terry fiasco 18months back, I think the FA have had it in for Terry. At the end of the day, the playb0y actions of the Chelsea Skipper put the sport, the reputation of the English game, and the name of football players to embarrassment. Because of this, I think the FA are going to use this Race-Row as an excuse to completely throw the book at him.

John Terry and Anton Ferdinand exchange words.

8-15 game ban; something really serious. I think you’re going to feel half of it for the crime of racism, and half of it for the FA to well-and-truly get him back for the Bridge-gate.

How on earth do you wrap up such monstrosity of a blog-post? I’m not really sure, but I would really love to hear your views on anything I’ve spoke about. So tweet me or comment below.

This was very fun to write, by the way.

Over and out.

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Arsène Wenger, 15 years on. Has the bubble burst?

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Firstly, I really didn’t want to write this. I tweeted on a few occasions completely ruling myself out of making a Wenger critic article, but there comes a point where there’s an element of hypocrisy to blog on the failings of other clubs, yet casually avoid your own.  Secondly; This is a long one, but bare with it – It’ll put some light on a generation of football.

“When I think of Arsène Wenger, I think of Warren Buffett. Wenger runs his football club like he is going to own the club for 100 years.”
Billy Beane, 2010.

At 15th in the table, P7 W2 D1 L3. Arsenal have made their worst start to a season in 58 years. The fans are in dismay, the players look shaken, the injury list is growing, and their rivals are pulling away at a rate of knots.

Rewind.

Let’s start this from the beginning. It’s 1996 and Arsenal, and then-CEO David Dein, have just appointed a geeky, quirky, funny looking Frenchman. Armed with a masters degree in economics, a modest playing career and a decent record with Monaco/Nagoya Grampus Eight. It was a controversial appointment to say the least.

Arsène Wenger in 1996, aged 47.

20 months later and Mr Wenger is sitting pretty with an Fa Cup and Premier League title to his name – the first foreign manager to ever achieve ‘the double’. Suddenly the penny dropped, this was a man who’s breath of fresh air had shaken the football world. The attention was being directed to a brand of football, a culture of pass and move. The Evening Standard, who had headlined with “Arsène Who?!” 2 years ago, were looking very sheepish.

Fast forward again, to the famous unparalleled 2003-2004 campaign. ‘The Invincibles’. Arsène Wenger has navigated his side to an unbeaten season, with an all-time unbeaten record of 49 games. He could do no wrong. He had the balance between purchasing established quality players, and developing young players through the system to play the ‘Arsenal Way’. His back four were stubborn. He had a solid 4-4-2 in place which was frustrating to break down and devastating on the break. The giants in Europe were scared. No-one wanted to play The Arsenal.

Following that, the come-down was inevitable, even the most heartened Gooner didn’t expect another invincibles season, but the manner in which the 49-long run was ended has always left a feeling of injustice around the club. An FA Cup victory in 2005 to Manchester United sweetened the pain. Club captain Patrick Vieira left the club and Gilberto Silva filled the boots. Adequately, I must add. The FA Cup win 6 years ago is the last trophy Arsenal Football Club won.

What has happened to a team which promised so much?

Next stop, January 2011, every year getting more frustrating than the last. David Dein, the Chairman, the personal and professional friend of Wenger left the club in 2006 following disputes over the move away from the 93 year old, 38,000 capacity Highbury Stadium, across the road to the new state-of-the-art Emirates Stadium. Arsenal’s pass-and-move philosophy remains, the big name players – to an extent, remain. There is slightly more focus on buying talented youngsters and developing them into the players of tomorrow, as opposed to the balance which was in use during the 2001-2005 era. It’s a long-term plan. Fans are patient, at times too patient, but in January Arsenal find themselves the only English club in all 4 competitions, 2nd in the league with a game in hand, with a strong team, players bought as youth in 2007/8 are now showing the promise to be stars. All is going to plan, bar the long-term injury of  central defender Vermaelen, and the insufficient cover on the wings.

To me, Mid-January 2011 is where Arsène Wenger makes his first big mistake. At a time where we have serious chances of an epic season, he needs to strengthen, and get depth. Every manager from Barcelona to Barnet will tell you that teams statistically suffer more injuries in the second half of the season. Wenger does not add to his side.

With the same 25 man squad, Arsenal enter February. A promising month, with a Carling Cup Semi Final, a string of winnable Premier League games, and mouth-watering clash with Barcelona in the Champions League bridging what became the Carling Cup final.

A thrilling win against Barcelona comes first, before they are dragged back down to earth by the turning point in The Gunners season.
Arsenal 1 – 0 Stoke City.
A nervous win against a gritty Potters side, but the tackling of Pulis’s men enrages Arsène Wenger. Winger Theo Walcott, and Captain Cesc Fabregas suffer injuries as a result of strong tackles and are added to the 4 long injury list ahead of the Carling Cup final.

Arsenal 1 – 2 Birmingham City. Carling Cup Final, Feb 27th 2011.

Birmingham players celebrate their winner.

Calamity. Disaster. Embarrassing. The victors went on to be relegated. This was the first showing of cracks in Arsène Wenger’s new 4-2-3-1 formation, as the structure of that team was based around the creativity of the injured Cesc Fabregas, the team went to Wembley and played without a spark. He should have played 4-4-2. This formation is a central-theme to Arsenal’s current demise.

From that game, Arsenal went from worse to worse. Cheated out of the Champions League 3 days later. From 4 trophies to 2 trophies in no time. 2 weeks later, FA Cup quarter-final; Arsenal, and I, travel to Old Trafford to see Sir Alex play 7 defenders against the best strength Arsenal side available. And Manchester United run out 2-0 winners.